Pit patterns in rectal mucosa assessed by magnifying colonoscope are predictive of relapse in patients with quiescent ulcerative colitis.Gut. 2006 Dec;55(12):1768-73. Epub 2006 May 8.

BACKGROUND: Relapse of ulcerative colitis is difficult to predict by routine colonoscopy. A high-resolution video-magnifying colonoscope with chromoscopy enables the observation of colorectal mucosal pit patterns. AIMS: To investigate the association of pit patterns as assessed by magnifying colonoscopy (MCS) with histological inflammation and mucosal chemokine activity in patients with quiescent ulcerative colitis, and to prospectively analyse the prognostic factors that may predict exacerbations. METHODS: MCS was performed in 113 patients with ulcerative colitis in remission. Pit patterns in the rectal mucosa were classified into four MCS grades on the basis of size, shape and arrangement. Mucosal interleukin (IL) 8 activity was measured in biopsy specimens of rectal mucosa and the specimens were assessed for histological disease activity. The patients were then followed until relapse or for a maximum of 12 months. Multivariate survival analysis was carried out to determine the independent predictors of clinical relapse. RESULTS: A positive correlation was identified between MCS grade, histological grade (p = 0.001) and mucosal IL8 activity (p<0.001). Multivariate proportional hazard model analysis showed that MCS grade was a significant predictor of relapse (relative risk 2.06, p = 0.001). Kaplan-Meier estimate of relapse during 12 months of follow-up was found to increase with increasing MCS grade, with values of 0% for grade 1, 21% for grade 2, 43% for grade 3 and 60% for grade 4. CONCLUSION: MCS grading is associated with the degree of histological inflammation and mucosal IL8 activity in patients with quiescent ulcerative colitis, and may predict the probability of subsequent disease relapse in patients with ulcerative colitis in remission.

Increased rectal wall thickness may predict relapse in ulcerative colitis: a pilot follow-up study by ultrasonographic colonoscopy.Endoscopy. 2002 Mar;34(3):212-9.

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: Ulcerative colitis is a chronic inflammatory bowel disease with repeated remission and relapse, although the occurrence of relapse is difficult to predict. We performed a prospective study to determine whether there is a relationship in ulcerative colitis between the inflammatory changes identified by endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) and relapse.PATIENTS AND METHODS: Participants were 23 ulcerative colitis patients who had not suffered a relapse for 1 month, with a Seo activity index less-than-or-equal 150 and Baron grade 1 at colonoscopy. The thickness of the first to the third layer of the rectal wall in these patients was measured by EUS at the start of the study. They were subsequently followed up for 1 year to record any relapses, defined as having a Seo activity index > 150 and Baron grade greater-than-or-equal 2 at colonoscopy.RESULTS: Relapse occurred in eight patients. The mean activity index of the relapsed patients was 187.3 (95 % confidence interval (CI), 166.4 - 208.2) at the end of the study. The thickness of the first to the third layer of the rectal wall, as evaluated by EUS at the beginning of the study, was significantly larger in the relapse group (mean 2.73 mm, 95 % CI 2.13 - 3.33 mm) than in the non-relapse group (1.79 mm; 1.56 - 1.99 mm; P = 0.0001).CONCLUSIONS: Catheter probe-assisted endoluminal ultrasonography may predict the occurrence of relapse of ulcerative colitis.